actually, he pretty much has<\/a>), but there is much speculation that the job is his for the taking in four or five years of seasoning in Boston after a \u201ccare-taker\u201d tenure of an older colleague.<\/p>\nWhat then of Thielemann? He\u2019s old enough yet young enough, he works with them a lot and he passes the \u201cis pretty much the opposite of the last guy to hold the job\u201d test. It\u2019s not for me to say (and everyone else has said it already), but there is a pretty broad consensus around the industry that he excels in the music of three composers- Bruckner, Richard Strauss and Wagner. His Brahms is more than credible and there\u2019s a fantastic Schoenberg Pelleas and Melisande in the Digital Concert Hall. Is that enough? Even within the German canon, his Beethoven and Schumann are VERY controversial, he doesn’t conduct Mahler (the third-most-popular composer in the Digital Concert Hall after Beethoven and Brahms), and outside German repertoire, he\u2019s even more controversial. It\u2019s well worth watching his Tchaikovsky Six in the Digital Concert Hall to see why. I\u2019ll stop there.<\/p>\n
If the numbers tell us these are the orchestra\u2019s two favorite conductors, does the orchestra have to choose one or the other? I suspect so. Does Nelsons need or want more time in Boston before taking on the world’s toughest conducting job? Many think so. Thielemann is in the prime of his career and has a near-perfect gig in Dresden which also includes opera. He would be nuts to come to Berlin for any sort of time-limited role. If he goes to Berlin, he’s planning to stay for life. \u00a0Also, Thielemann loses points based on the \u201chappy where they are measure.\u201d Between the two, the statistics tell us that Nelsons gets the job, but in 2023. But a lot can happen in five or six years- today’s sure thing is tomorrow’s empty promise, and trust me: EVERY conductor knows that from experience.<\/p>\n
Gustavo Dudamel has also clearly ruled himself out this time, so that leaves two statistically likely candidates at six and five gigs respectively- Alan Gilbert and Semyon Bychkov. Neither seem to by high in the bookmakers’ estimation, but there are clear statistical arguments to be made that either could win the job.<\/p>\n
Gilbert breezes past the \u201chappy where they are\u201d test. He\u2019s just announced his departure from the New York Philharmonic, so he’s neither happy nor anywhere. In sporting terms, that makes him a big time free agent, a veteran player ready to slot in to an elite team. Gilbert presents an informal media image, but his repertoire and musical culture seem more hardcore Central European than laid-back American, and his work in the Digital Concert Hall seems to embody a near-ideal balance between the canon and major Central European works of the 20th<\/sup> c. Bartok, Nielsen, Lutoslawski, Janacek and Martinu sit alongside Dvorak and Mendelssohn in the archive. His age would seem to argue that he wouldn\u2019t want to only stick around for 5 years or so to make room for Nelsons, but does his mysterious departure from New York indicate maybe he\u2019s someone who is restless and likes to change scenery? Hard to say. There have been rumours of critical or musician discontent behind his departure from New York, but between their relationship with Gilbert and that with Mehta, one thing is clear- Berliners really don\u2019t care what people in New York think about conductors.<\/p>\nThat leaves just Semyon Bychkov, one ahead of Gilbert at 6 gigs. Passes the \u201chappy where they are\u201d test because he\u2019s freelance with only part time\/semi-honorary position at the BBC Symphony. He\u2019s at the peak of his musical powers and just that little bit younger and healthier than guys like Barenboim and Jansons. His repertoire and recorded history align well with Berlin’s. Few have pointed it out of late, but his appointment would mark an even stronger reconnection with the Karajan legacy than Thielemann would- his name was the first out of Karajan\u2019s mouth back in the 1980\u2019s when asked about his potential successors. Back then, that endorsement was a near career-killer, taken as proof that the old man was finally skating off the rink. Could it work in Bychkov\u2019s favour now? What of the \u201cmost\/best\u201d concerts? Well, after Nelsons, Thielemann and the old guard, he\u2019s the next most, and may well have conducted the best concert in the Digital Concert Hall. These things are subjective, but his performance of the Alpine Symphony in 2008 is my favorite performance of anything in the Digital Concert Hall, and I remember his Brahms 2 as being really magnificent as well. Plus, he passes the \u201chas also recorded for the wonderful Avie Records\u201d test.<\/p>\n
His is not a name that\u2019s been mentioned often in connection with the world\u2019s top job, but often those that know most about what\u2019s going on say the least. One critic suggested he was too Jewish for Berlin. One would hope in these dark times the musicians of the Philharmonic would see the appointment of their first Jewish Chief Conductor as an opportunity to send an important, positive message to a Europe being quickly covered by the stinking storm clouds of rising anti-Semitism.<\/p>\n
So there you have it- if the statistics are right, we can say with confidence that we know for sure that the next Chief Conductor of the Berlin Philharmonic will be Semyon Bychkov.<\/p>\n
![\"Hans](\"https:\/\/kennethwoods.net\/blog1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/06\/AV2230cover-300x300.jpg\")
<\/span><\/span>![\""Me?](\"http:\/\/kennethwoods.net\/blog1\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/bichkov2.jpg\")
<\/a>